Latest macadamia transactions: 15-19 April 2024
Observed transactions in kernel purchases in the week past saw Style 0 prices break solidly through US$12/kg CIF levels. Average April prices for the month now more than US$1/kg CIF higher than the average Style 0 prices seen in observed transactions for the month of March. Style 1 transactions later in the week averaged US$12/kg CIF bringing April’s month-to-date average close to that figure. Upward movement in ingredient styles prices has been less significant.
Meanwhile, observed transactions for premium NIS product lines (namely NIS 22+ and NIS 25+ sizes) showed a marked improvement on March prices despite slow demand from Chinese buyers. The price difference between NIS 22+ and NIS 22-25 sizes is becoming more evident as the season progresses, with the latter offering buyers a less favourable mix of larger sizes.
Market sentiment
South African and Australian harvests are well underway but will only begin to shape the market into May. The temporary lifting of Kenya’s ban on the exporting of NIS last year has led to a rapid increase in product on the market in early 2024. Additionally, Malawi’s harvests are on the market. April is traditionally a quiet trading month for NIS and the current situation has Chinese buyers looking for bargains. Stratamarkets reports that NIS buyer sentiment has South African and Australian processors holding off on transactions until they can secure better prices than current bids are offering. Much of the NIS stock on the international market prior to South Africa and Australia’s harvests is reserved for cracking by Asian buyers and supplied into ingredient markets—higher quality NIS supply from May meets demand in the Chinese snack market. Suppliers of high-quality NIS will have to be willing to wait for the impact of China’s domestic supply on the country’s import requirements for the year, something only known from September. In recent years, China’s demand for imported NIS has reshaped under growing domestic supply.
Meanwhile, the recovery of kernel prices in April, particularly for snack market styles preferred in Europe, will draw suppliers’ attention to these markets. Continued acceleration in kernel prices into May will influence cracking decisions by processors, particularly in the light of the uncertain trajectory of NIS price increases. However, European demand response to 2024’s rising prices will be critical in tipping processor decisions in favour the more lucrative kernel markets.
Trade Trends
Europe importation of kernel styles peaks in the third quarter of each year. Price paid per kilogramme by importers, as measured by import customs value divided by import customs quantity, fell sharply in 2023. The downward price pressure, which started in 2021, stimulated demand for kernel products in Europe in 2023 but also incentivised suppliers to supply Asian NIS markets which were a more secure option under strengthened Chinese purchases towards the end of the year. While 2024 prices in observed kernel transactions appear to have recovered quickly to average over US$12/kg CIF for Style 0 and Style 1, the pace of recovery this early in the year may raise concerns that it could dampen European demand by the 2024 peak import season.
| Kernel Macadamia Import Volume by Europe (with average €/kg), 2018 to 2023 | ||||||
| Origin | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
| South Africa | 2,515t (€16.19/kg) | 2,491t (€17.20/kg) | 3,276t (€16.59/kg) | 3,235t (€15.33/kg) | 2,811t (€15.81/kg) | 4,126t (€7.35/kg) |
| Kenya | 1,639t (€15.53/kg) | 1,172t (€15.79/kg) | 1,461t (€14.09/kg) | 2,059t (€12.59/kg) | 2,231t (€12.06/kg) | 1,753t (€8.28/kg) |
| Australia | 1,275t (€15.53/kg) | 1,479t (€16.92/kg) | 1,299t (€17.05/kg) | 1,082t (€15.57/kg) | 979t (€16.08/kg) | 933t (€11.90/kg) |
| Guatemala | 188t (€16.81/kg) | 314t (€15.86/kg) | 98t (€16.65/kg) | 114t (€14.61/kg) | 534t (€13.06/kg) | 857t (€8.95/kg) |
| Malawi | 503t (€15.32/kg) | 572t (€16.70/kg) | 337t (€16.66/kg) | 549t (€14.45/kg) | 387t (€14.28/kg) | 373t (€8.23/kg) |
| Vietnam | 60t (€6.26/kg) | 77t (€8.01/kg) | 84t (€2.36/kg) | 31t (€2.84/kg) | 76t (€2.68/kg) | 43t (€4.50/kg) |
| USA | 286t (€11.31/kg) | 125t (€14.11/kg) | 93t (€13.97/kg) | 125t (€16.56/kg) | 257kg (€24.52/kg) | 27t (€11.32/kg) |
| China | 21t (€17.85/kg) | 28t (€9.97/kg) | 336kg (€5.20/kg) | 181t (€15.23/kg) | 44t (€15.79/kg) | 4t (€6.56/kg) |
Source: European Commission Access2Markets Database
Germany and the Netherlands are the two biggest European markets for macadamia kernel products. While the value of Netherlands’ imports from South Africa and Kenya have been even for a long period, the value of German imports from Kenya has grown relative to South Africa in recent years. In Q4-2021, the value of South African kernel product arriving in Germany was three times that of Kenya. By Q4-2023, this gap had narrowed to 2.1 times.
In the news
11 April 2024: W14 Macadamia Update: Zimbabwe Increases Cultivation, South Africa Dominates Global Macadamia Trade, China Shows Growing Kernel Imports
11 April 2024: Macadamia: good prospects for 2024
10 April 2024: Macadamia prices rise modestly, remain below production cost
9 April 2024: Farmers reap big as macadamia prices rise
5 April 2024: Macadamia sector trends: global production upswing and market price dynamics
4 April 2024: 13% increase in macadamia crop production expected
3 April 2024: More than ninety percent of the world’s macadamia nuts are exported to China!